Policy tolerance of economic crime? An empirical analysis of the effect of counterfeiting on Italian trade

Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects.     

Government size,composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil

The performance of the fiscal policy is largely affected by the relationship between government size, composition of public spending and economic growth. We use a theoretical framework to find optimal relations among these variables and confront them with a panel data for the Brazilian states. Private capital and government spending are substitute inputs in production as the Brazilian states require provision of public spending to fill gaps in the underdeveloped private sector. Public investment and current government expenditures are combined in fixed ratios in the overall government spending due to strong rigidity of the public budget. The optimal share of public investment is considerably lower than current expenditures, as occurs in developing countries characterized by low economic dynamism. Finally, the average tax burden from the data is below the estimated optimal level, meaning that there is space for increasing tax rate without harming economic growth for some Brazilian states.     

地方政府间税收竞争会诱发过度投资吗*

政府行为的策略变化是否会引起企业行为的变化？本文以地方政府间税收竞争为切入点，研究其对企业过度投资的影响。本文首先利用工业企业数据库中的制造业企业，测算出企业投资效率并保留其中过度投资的样本；其次利用地级市经济社会数据构造出税收竞争指标，实证检验税收竞争对企业过度投资的影响，并进行相应的异质性分析和稳健性检验。实证研究发现税收竞争显著促进企业过度投资，而且对非国有企业的过度投资行为影响更大。本文的研究结论对当前我国产业结构调整、破解产能过剩等问题有一定的借鉴意义。     

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks

This paper studies the nonlinear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy shocks and presents a new stylized fact. We show that uncertainty about monetary policy changes the way the term structure responds to monetary policy. A policy tightening leads to a significantly smaller increase in long-term bond yields if policy uncertainty is high at the time of the shock. We also look at the decomposition of bond yields into expectations about future policy and the term premium. The weaker response of yields is driven by the fall in term premia, which fall more strongly if uncertainty about policy is high. Conditional on a monetary policy shock, higher uncertainty about monetary policy tends to make securities with longer maturities relatively more attractive to investors. As a consequence, investors demand even lower term premia. These findings are robust to the measurement of monetary policy uncertainty, the definition of the monetary policy shock, and to changing the model specification.     

Internal conflict and Bank liquidity creation: Evidence from the belt and Road initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative is the most important international economic strategy in the 21st Century initiated by China. In this paper, we conduct the first international study on the effects of the host country’s internal conflict risk of the Belt and Road Initiative on bank liquidity creation, one of the key functions banks provide for the public. We find that the host country’s internal conflict risk negatively affects bank liquidity creation. The results are also economically significant and robust to subsample tests. It also indicates that Chinese firms that will conduct foreign investments in the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative should take the host country’s internal conflict risk into account.     

Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries

This paper investigates the dynamics of bond and stock market capital flows to BRICS countries under uncertainties such as global economic policy uncertainty and the US trade policy uncertainty. We use a time-varying Granger causality framework over the January 2008-November 2019 period to analyze the predictive power of uncertainties on capital flows in the form of bond and equity. The results show that the effects are heterogeneous across countries and stronger during the Global Financial Crisis period and post-2018 period while it lost its significance in the subsequent period. The negative influence of uncertainties on capital flows directed to BRICS countries is also evident in the results of non-parametric time-varying panel models. Overall, it is thought that the heterogeneous structure of the causality between uncertainty and portfolio flows into BRICS may present portfolio diversification benefits for global investors.     

Institutional quality,investment efficiency,and the choice of public–private partnerships

We examine a sample of 625 public–private partnership (PPP) firms from 1980 to 2015 that straddle nine countries with varying degrees of economic development and PPP markets. We find that the motivations of the firms that undertake PPP investments vary. While private sector firms in economies with low institutional quality choose to engage in PPPs to alleviate capital constraints attributed to underinvestment, those in economies with high institutional quality participate in PPPs to solve the problem of overinvestment due to an abundant cash flow. In the long run, the benefits of lower capital constraints through PPP investments are more pronounced in economies with high institutional quality.     

Institutionalising multiple accountability logics in public services: Insights from Australia

This paper reports on a field study of how a range of inter-institutional and inter-organisational forces shape the evolving rhetoric and practice of multiple accountabilities in public services. Drawing on the institutional logics perspective, we carried out a qualitative field study in the Australian Commonwealth Public Service involving semi-structured interviews, two focus group discussions, and the examination of internal accounting, management reports, and government archival records. The findings suggest that emphasis on conventional instrumental mechanisms and reporting tools, such as budgeting and accrual-based reporting, support managerial (instrumental) accountability through compliance logics. We conclude that an emphasis on public (relational) accountability through public dialogue is central to the public sector accountability debate, and that more attention needs to be paid to the question of how to balance the dual logics (instrumental and relational) in public services. The findings provide practical insights for public sector managers, policymakers and governments responsible for designing and implementing reforms, accounting tools, and accountability practices.     

协调发展战略下地方政府合作的动力机制探析--以深汕特别合作区为例

党的十九大报告首次提出区域协调发展战略,要求各地充分发挥比较优势,加强政府间合作,着力解决区域发展不平衡不充分的问题。深汕合作区正是实施这一战略的典型代表。其中,政府的战略政策导向、经济全球化、区域一体化和非政府组织的发展是合作区得以形成的主要外部动力;区域协调发展、产业结构调整、官员升迁诉求是内部动力。但是,在合作区发展的过程中也存在一定的阻力。如地方保护主义的抬头、利益博弈、市场运作的行政化。因此,为促进地方政府间良性合作,应不断强化合作的正向激励,降低合作的阻力,保证区域府际合作的长久性。     

基于经济阈值效应的地方政府举债压力弹性研究

地区所处经济阶段差异会使地方政府行为激励产生异质性,进而影响地区举债压力弹性。从经济阈值效应的独特视角,探究不同经济门槛区间压力波动引起的地方政府举债行为变化,利用举债压力弹性解释地方政府债务规模扩张成因。基于我国283个地级市数据,构建门槛面板模型对理论假设进行经验检验。研究发现:从低到高的经济阈值区间下地方政府举债压力弹性翻倍增长,尤其是在第三经济阈值区间,举债规模扩张呈现加速度特征;财政压力对地方政府举债的刺激作用,只有在第三经济阈值区间才会得以释放;“土地财政”的存在强化了地方政府举债对压力变化的敏感度,并助推了地方政府举债压力的弹性波动。经济处于发达阶段的地方政府的举债压力敏感度,显著高于处于欠发达阶段的地方政府,因此,高水平的城市举债压力弹性及其潜在的债务风险应成为下一步关注的焦点。